Weather of Course

In my previous post, I mention that the course for a sailboat race is frequently chosen to reduce any advantage a particular boat design might have. Most of the races Cyclone participates in are set up this way. Some boats have an advantage upwind, others downwind, and still others when sailing sideways to the wind. To keep things reasonably fair, one common course used for our weekly races begins with a destination that is nearly straight upwind three fourths of a mile. From this destination the course turns left and heads sideways to the wind (and just slightly down wind) with the wind blowing on the starboard (right) side of the boat for nearly six tenths of a mile. The course then turns left again heading straight downwind for one mile. Turning left yet again, the course proceeds sideways to the wind (and just slightly downwind) again, this time with the wind blowing on the port (left) side of the boat for nearly six tenths of a mile again. Turning left again, the course is once again straight upwind and heading towards the start-line (which is also used as the finish-line). To extend the distance of the race, this course is typically sailed "twice around". If you are familiar with geometric shapes this course is an isosceles trapezoid. The race begins and finishes at the midpoint of the long base of the trapezoid, and the wind is blowing straight down this line.

This course forces all the racers to sail upwind (also known as "close hauled", "on a beat" or "on a tack"), downwind (also known as "running", or "on a run"), and sideways to the wind (also known as "reaching" or "on a reach").

Because the Chicago to Mackinac race is a one way race, and the start-line and finish-line really can't be moved, the weather can have a significant effect on the results of the race. The ORR handicapping system used for this race attempts to compensate for variations in boat design, and without sufficient skill and talent a racing crew is unlikely to win even with the best possible conditions for their boat. However, if two boats of differing design are raced equally well, the one whose design is most adversely affected by the weather will lose.

This means that under certain weather conditions if we sail our boat perfectly without making a single mistake, while we will finish ahead of those with less skill and talent, competitors who sail their boats as well as we do will beat us. Under other weather conditions, if we sail our boat perfectly, we will be unbeatable since even if they sail perfectly as well the competing boat will not be able to overcome the effects of the weather. Of course, if we make mistakes and sail "less than optimally" we will finish a bit later than we could have and will create an opportunity for the skill and talent of a competitor to compensate for the limitations the weather on their boat.

Length of the boat has a large effect on the ability of the boat to sail upwind. Typically, the longer the boat, the better it can sail upwind. At 30 feet Cyclone is the shortest hull length in our section. As such, any wind blowing from anywhere in a north-like direction (northwest, north, northeast, just slightly north of due east, etc) will place a huge limitation on us. We will need to sail significantly better than all 22 other competitors in our section just to compensate for the limitations of the boat length. On the other hand, wind coming from the southwest or from slightly south of due west will be optimal for us. With a wind coming from a southwest (or similar) direction, our competitors will need to overcome limitations of the designs of their boats, and if we can sail just slightly better than they do we will almost certainly win against the boats in our section.

In a race that will take multiple days to complete, the weather is likely to change multiple times throughout the race. Sometimes we will benefit, sometimes our competitors will. Part of our challenge will be to look at weather predictions before and during the race and determine where the weather is likely to help us the most (or hurt us the least), and sail the boat to try to be in the appropriate location when the weather is right.

For now all we can do is wait until the weather forecasts become more reliable and hope for southwest winds.